Raiders Week 4 Review: what the previews got right and wrong
Every preview I read last week said the same thing: third down was where the Raiders would be beaten. They held Kansas City to five conversions from thirteen, which is 38.5%, and lost 30-27 anyway (NFL.com game book).
Final. https://t.co/pdH8Pmtkze
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) October 4, 2026
So for this weeks review I decided to set myself some homework. I wrote all of it down before kick-off, every claim, with a source against each one.
That turned out to be the most useful thing I did all weekend. Some of it was right. Some of it was badly wrong. One of it decided the game. This was a great way to cut through the noise of post game analysis
How the Chiefs @ Raiders game went
The Raiders led 13-10 going into the fourth quarter. Then thirty-four points happened in fifteen minutes.
| Quarter | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 7 | 7 |
| Q2 | 3 | 6 |
| Q3 | 0 | 0 |
| Q4 | 20 | 14 |
| Final | 30 | 27 |
It turned on a play that did not even belong to the fourth quarter. With thirty seconds left in the third, Kenneth Walker broke right and ran 76 yards before Taron Johnson hauled him down on the Las Vegas 8. Six seconds into the fourth, Patrick Mahomes threw eight yards to Tyquan Thornton for the touchdown, and Kansas City led 17-13.
Las Vegas answered with two Matt Gay field goals, a 44-yarder and then a 48-yarder, the first of them set up by Dylan Laube’s 53-yard kickoff return. That put the Raiders back in front 19-17 with 4:53 left.
Then the game went in nineteen seconds. Mahomes found Thornton again, deep left for 55 yards to the Las Vegas 5, and Thornton was hurt on the play, finishing with five catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Walker ran it in from two yards to make it 23-19, Kansas City failing the two-point try. Dareke Young then fumbled the kickoff return on his own 22, Kansas City recovered, and Walker ran it in from there on the very next play. 30-19.
Brock Bowers caught a 20-yard touchdown with 1:46 left and Kirk Cousins found Cody White for the two-point conversion, which is the play worth two points instead of the routine kick worth one (how scoring works has the rest).
That made it 30-27 and set up a last drive from the Raiders’ own one-yard line. Eleven plays, including a completion to White that was reversed to incomplete on review (replay and challenges explains how that works), up to the Kansas City 49, and then Cousins was intercepted with ten seconds left.
What the previews said, and what actually happened
Here is the list I logged on Saturday, marked.
| What was said before kick-off | Who said it | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Third-down defence is the weakness; the Saints converted nine of fifteen | Bill Williamson, SB Nation | Chiefs converted 5 of 13, 38.5% |
| Travis Kelce is historically dominant against Las Vegas | Bill Williamson, SB Nation | 2 catches, 15 yards, no touchdown |
| The Raiders must stop Kenneth Walker III | Williamson; a Yahoo preview; Brooke Cersosimo, NFL.com; the Just Win Raiders Podcast | 22 carries, 177 yards, 8.0 a carry, 2 touchdowns |
| The Raiders lead the league in takeaways, plus-five differential | Williamson; Cersosimo | Forced none. Gave up two |
| Bowers is the key; Kansas City are weak against tight ends | A Yahoo preview | 6 catches, 86 yards, 1 touchdown from 11 targets |
| Rookie left tackle Kahlil Benson faces his biggest test against Maxx Crosby | A Yahoo preview | Kansas City allowed two sacks. The Raiders allowed none |
| Kansas City average over 416 yards a game | A Yahoo preview | 399 yards |
| Six of seven analysts picked the Chiefs, by an average of 4.83 points | NFL.com, Pro Football Talk, Stadium Rant | Chiefs by 3 |
Two of those deserve a proper look.
The weakness got fixed. Holding this Kansas City offence to 38.5% on third down is the single best thing the Raiders did all night, and almost nobody will write about it, because it is the sort of success that leaves no highlight. Third down is the one that decides whether a drive continues or the punter comes on, so a defence that gets off the field on third down is a defence doing its job. If you want to know which defensive numbers are worth watching, defence stats, decoded lays them out.
The warning everyone gave got ignored. Four separate sources named Kenneth Walker as the thing to stop. He ran for 177 yards at eight yards a carry, with a long of 76, and scored both of the touchdowns that decided it. Cersosimo was the only analyst of the seven to pick the Raiders, and she said in writing that they “must limit” Walker. They didn’t, and her pick lost on exactly the condition she set. When four people who do not work together name the same player, it is worth listening.
The takeaway streak died too. Nine takeaways in three games going in, multiple every week. On Sunday the Raiders forced nothing and handed over two.
The fourth down, and the rule that allowed it
Third quarter, Raiders leading 13-10, fourth-and-seven on the Kansas City 23. Gay kicked a 41-yard field goal and it went over. Then Kansas City were flagged for an illegal formation on the play, which handed Klint Kubiak a choice.
The rule is Rule 14, Section 2, Article 3 of the NFL rulebook:
“In all scoring situations, the offended team also has the option of accepting the penalty with customary enforcement and beginning a new series, or replaying the down, instead of counting the points.”
In plain terms: when your opponent breaks a rule on a play you have just scored on, you can keep the points and wave the penalty away, or you can take the penalty, wipe the score off and have another go from better field position. The points are not automatically yours. You get to choose.
Kubiak chose the penalty. That wiped the three points and turned fourth-and-seven into fourth-and-two on the Kansas City 18. Cousins threw for Ashton Jeanty, it fell incomplete, and Las Vegas came away with nothing from a drive that had already banked three. The game finished 30-27.
He was asked about it afterwards and did not hide: “We were going to be aggressive going into the game. I don’t regret it. I regret not getting it” (Pro Football Network).
Kubiak told Yahoo’s Matt Holder he “blew it”, and later in the game, having come up short once, he took the points instead. His full press conference is here.
Here is where I come down, and you are welcome to disagree. I am glad he went for it. A team that had just been handed better field position by the opposition, playing well, at home, in the biggest game of its season, backed itself. That is the version of this team I have enjoyed for a month. The arithmetic is cruel, three points declined and a three-point defeat, but you do not get the 3-0 start without the same instinct that produced this. I would rather watch a coach who goes for it and misses than one who never asks the question.
The numbers they won, and the ones that counted
This is the part worth understanding, because the Raiders won nearly everything that accumulates and lost anyway.
| Stat | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| First downs | 18 | 28 |
| Total yards | 399 | 437 |
| Offensive plays | 58 | 78 |
| Yards per play | 6.9 | 5.6 |
| Time of possession | 24:18 | 35:42 |
| Red zone touchdowns | 3 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers lost | 0 | 2 |
Twenty-eight first downs. Thirty-five minutes and forty-two seconds with the ball, which is nearly three-fifths of the game. And two touchdowns, both of them in the fourth quarter.
The red zone is the area inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, where the field gets short and the defence has less ground to protect. Kansas City went in four times and scored three touchdowns. Las Vegas went in twice and scored none. Four Gay field goals is a tidy night for a kicker and a bad one for an offence, because three points instead of seven, twice over, is the margin and more.
The other half of it is explosive plays. Kansas City scored four touchdowns on 58 snaps because they had a 76-yard run and a 55-yard catch in them, and both led directly to points. The Raiders needed 78 snaps to score two. Possession and yardage tell you who controlled the game; points per play tells you who won it. If you want the fuller picture of which team numbers actually predict results, team stats, decoded covers it.
One continuity note for anyone following Cousins. He went 31 of 52 for 365 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, and his longest completion of the night went 28 yards. Last week it was 22. He is still winning games, and losing them, almost entirely underneath.
The takes
The outside verdict was kinder than the scoreboard. On NFL on CBS, JJ Watt said of the Raiders: “Yes, [the Raiders] are a REAL DEAL team.” Mike Dixon of Vegas Sports Today framed the quarter-season at 3-1 and reckoned the ceiling is high.
"Yes, [the Raiders] are a REAL DEAL team." @JJWatt was impressed with the Raiders’ performance despite losing to the Chiefs. #NFLPostgame https://t.co/njGy5ijLps
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 5, 2026
Alex Monfreda, who some of you will remember as the analyst whose fumble-stat correction I unpicked two weeks ago, was taken with one Cousins escape in particular: “Never in a million years did I think Kirk (at this stage of his career) was capable of this play. Every part. The feel. The escape. The throw on the run.”
Never in a million years did I think Kirk (at this stage of his career) was capable of this play. Every part. The feel. The escape. The throw on the run. And the arm. The effortless flick downfield on the move dotting his man in stride. This is not normal 38-year-old stuff.
— Alex Monfreda (@AlexMonfreda) October 5, 2026
Where do the Raiders sit now
The Raiders are 3-1. Kansas City are 4-0 and top of the AFC West, where this division has sat for most of a decade. If you have just picked this rivalry up and want to know why a one-score defeat to these particular opponents stings this much, I have written the history of Chiefs versus Raiders properly. A 3-1 start is still a good start, and the NFL play-offs and seeding explains what it is actually worth once January arrives. Pete Prisco said on CBS that the Raiders “are going to be a pain in the butt for every team out there.”
"[The Raiders] are going to be a pain in the butt for every team out there." @PriscoCBS #NFLPostgame https://t.co/J0vgmZ2NqC
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 5, 2026
The rest of the league
Week 4 had plenty beyond Allegiant, and I have written it all up in the full Week 4 roundup across the league.
Marking your own homework
Somebody will tell you this week what is going to decide Sunday’s game. They might be right. Last week the same list of experts correctly identified Kenneth Walker as the man who would win it and confidently wrong-footed themselves on third down, in the same afternoon, from the same piece of paper.
So read the previews, by all means. Then write down what they said, and look at it again on the Monday. It costs nothing, and it will teach you more about which numbers matter than any amount of watching will.