Author: alison b

  • What Does a Wide Receiver Do? The Art of Getting Open

    What Does a Wide Receiver Do? The Art of Getting Open

    Getting open is the entire purpose of a wide receiver’s job. Puka Nacua spent one October night doing it so relentlessly that his quarterback, Matthew Stafford, more or less stopped looking anywhere else to pass.

    The Los Angeles Rams receiver was thrown at 24 times and caught 17 of them for 138 yards and a touchdown, a career high in catches, in an overtime loss to the Buffalo Bills.

    Seventeen catches is a big day. But the 24 targets tell you more: Stafford threw to him that often because he kept getting open.

    What a wide receiver does

    Diagram of a wide receiver lined up near the sideline running a route upfield and then across the field, with a dotted line showing the quarterback’s throw arriving where the route ends, Gridiron Decoded

    A wide receiver is the player who is, not to state the obvious, out wide. Their job is to get open and catch the ball.

    A wide receiver lines up near the sideline, away from the pack of linemen, and runs a planned path called a route.

    The quarterback throws to where that route is meant to end, so a receiver and his passer are really running the same play from two ends of the field, trusting each other to arrive at the same spot at the same moment.

    If you want the whole attacking unit laid out, I have gone through it in how the offense is built. The man trying to stop all this is the cornerback, whose side of the same duel I pulled apart in its own spotlight.

    The real skill is getting open, not catching

    Here is the thing that took me a while to see. The hard part of playing receiver is not the catch. It is being somewhere the defender is not.

    Watch a receiver and your eye goes to the grab at the end, because that is the bit that looks difficult. But a quarterback will not throw to a covered man, however good his hands are.

    The yards and the catches everyone counts on a Sunday are downstream of one thing that happens first: the receiver has to shake free, even by a step, so there is a window to throw into. A receiver who cannot get open does not drop passes. He simply never gets thrown the ball at all.

    That is why Nacua’s twenty-four targets say more than his seventeen catches. Stafford aimed there again and again because the man kept coming.

    The NFL rule that decides what counts as a catch

    Catching looks like a black and white area of the game, held or dropped, but the rulebook is fussier than that. The fine print has overturned more big plays than any other line in the book. Even the experts can’t always agree!

    NFL rulebook, Rule 3, Player Possession. To gain possession of a loose ball that has been caught, intercepted, or recovered, a player (a) must have complete control of the ball with his hand(s) or arm(s) and (b) have both feet or any other part of his body, other than his hands, completely on the ground inbounds, and, after (a) and (b) have been fulfilled, then (c) clearly perform any act common to the game (e.g., extend the ball forward, take an additional step, tuck the ball away and turn upfield, or avoid or ward off an opponent).

    Read that third part again, because it is the one that trips people up.

    Controlling the ball and getting two feet down is not yet a catch. The receiver must then do something ordinary and football-like with it, take a step, reach out, turn upfield, or at least hold it long enough that he could have.

    Grab the ball, land, and have it jarred loose the same instant, and in the eyes of the rule you never caught it.

    That is the clause behind nearly every “was that a catch?” argument you have sat through.

    Seventeen times against Buffalo, Nacua finished the process. Most weeks, some receiver somewhere loses a big play on exactly this requirement.

    Separation: the stat that measures getting open

    There is a simple word for how open a receiver gets, and it is separation.

    It just means the gap the receiver opens up between himself and the defender covering him. It is measured at the moment the ball reaches, him caught or not. The bigger the gap, the more open he was.

    You will not see separation on the broadcast score bug, but it is the thing coaches and analysts actually chase, usually through a figure called yards per route run, which rewards a receiver for being a threat on every play rather than just padding totals in garbage time.

    It is the receiver’s version of a cornerback’s coverage numbers: the stat that explains the flashy ones sitting on top of it. Nacua’s blunt, visible proxy for it is that target count. A man does not get thrown at two dozen times in a night unless he is winning his route almost every snap.

    There is a season-long version of the same signal. Nacua missed time early with a hip injury and has played on through a calf problem since, and even so he has caught 56 passes in the six games he has played, around nine a game. A quarterback does not keep feeding a hobbled receiver that often unless the man is still winning his routes.

    The best receivers don’t always need to get open

    As we have just seen in the previous sections if a wide receiver wins the separation, then the target follows. But a small number of receivers are such strong, sure-handed targets that a quarterback will throw to them while they are still covered, trusting them to take the ball away in a crowd.

    Nacua has become one of them. Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, himself one of the best going, broke him down alongside the San Francisco linebacker Fred Warner:

    What makes him so special is his hands are insane. You can throw it anywhere, whether he’s covered or not.

    St. Brown’s phrase for it was “unguardable, covered or not”. That is the tier above separation, where a receiver no longer just creates space but makes it optional.

    2025’s top receivers by receiving yards

    For the fuller picture, here are last season’s leading wide receivers by receiving yards, with catches and touchdowns alongside. Note where the Monday-night man already sat.

    RankReceiverTeamRecYdsTD
    1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeattle Seahawks1191,79310
    2Puka NacuaLos Angeles Rams1291,71510
    3George PickensDallas Cowboys931,4299
    4Ja’Marr ChaseCincinnati Bengals1251,4128
    5Amon-Ra St. BrownDetroit Lions1171,40111
    6Zay FlowersBaltimore Ravens861,2115
    7Chris OlaveNew Orleans Saints1001,1639
    8Nico CollinsHouston Texans711,1176
    9Jameson WilliamsDetroit Lions651,1177
    10CeeDee LambDallas Cowboys751,0773

    Wide receivers only (players listed at wide receiver); tight ends and running backs are excluded. Ranked by receiving yards. Nico Collins and Jameson Williams tie on 1,117 yards, split here by Collins’ extra catches. Source: Pro Football Reference, 2025 NFL receiving.

    Nacua finished second in the entire league in receiving yards last season, behind only Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So the Buffalo game was not a bolt from nowhere. It was the player he already was, turned up loud for one night.

    The two who defined the position

    Every position has its handful of names, and at receiver the argument usually comes down to two of them.

    Jerry Rice is the near-unanimous answer to “greatest ever”, and not because he was the fastest man out there. He ran the cleanest routes in the sport’s history and simply would not stop, finishing as the all-time leader in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns by distances nobody has since threatened.

    Randy Moss was the opposite kind of nightmare: a deep threat so tall, fast and sure-handed that defences changed their whole shape to keep him in front of them, and who still holds the single-season record for touchdown catches.

    Back to that Monday night

    Which brings us back to Nacua and those 24 targets.

    It is easy to watch a receiver and count only the catches, because the catch is the part that looks hard.

    The real work is the half-second of space he created just before it, the part no highlight shows.

    The rarest receivers, like Nacua on his best nights, do not even need that space. Either way, the catch is only the last step of the job, not the whole of it. One won with craft, the other with sheer unfair physical gift.

    Both made the same point, which is that a receiver good enough bends the entire defence around himself before the ball is even snapped.

  • NFL Week 8: Tampa Bay barely threw the ball, and won anyway

    NFL Week 8: Tampa Bay barely threw the ball, and won anyway

    Now that the Monday results are in, the game that stood out for me as a rookie fan was Falcons at Buccaneers. Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0 having thrown three passes and completed none of them, running the ball instead on 56 of their 60 plays. They are only the second team in the Super Bowl era to win a game without a single completion.

    The NFL week 8 results

    Week 8 results
    2026 season · 14 games · kickoff times US Eastern
    Thursday 29 October
    GBPanthers at Packers 27-19
    Sunday 1 November
    JAXColts at Jaguars 42-7
    CINTitans at Bengals 43-36OT
    PITBrowns at Steelers 27-6
    DETVikings at Lions 19-15
    TBFalcons at Buccaneers 16-0
    ARICardinals at Cowboys 33-30OT
    LVRaiders at Jets 38-33
    BUFRavens at Bills 36-10
    LARChargers at Rams 24-9
    NEPatriots at Dolphins 24-19
    DENChiefs at Broncos 28-24
    Sunday night
    WASEagles at Commanders 27-10
    Monday night
    CHIBears at Seahawks 34-17
    On a bye: Texans, Giants, 49ers, Saints

    On a bye: Texans, Giants, 49ers, Saints. Kickoffs run from 1:00pm US Eastern, which is 6:00pm in the UK, through to the Monday night game at 1:15am our time. Every score here is checked against the full Week 8 scoreboard.

    Following the Raiders? They won 38-33 at the Jets, their first win in five, and are back to 4-4. The game is broken down in the Raiders Week 8 review.

    What a team gets from “running it” 56 times

    Tampa Bay’s quarterback, Baker Mayfield, threw three passes all afternoon. One was dropped, one was broken up, and he was sacked once, which left him 0 for 3 with no yards and minus two net passing yards. His team still won by sixteen.

    They did it by handing the ball off 56 times for 324 yards, a franchise record for a single game and comfortably past the 283 that stood before it. Bucky Irving carried 27 times for a career-high 170 yards and the game’s only touchdown.

    Kenny Gainwell carried 25 times for 140, making them only the second pair of Buccaneers to each pass 100 rushing yards in the same game. Mayfield ran four times for 14, which is fourteen more than he threw for.

    A carry, if you are not sure of the term just means one running play, and usually gains less yards than a pass.

    What it does instead is use up the clock, because the game clock keeps running after a tackle in the field of play and stops after an incomplete pass.

    Tampa Bay held the ball for 35 minutes and 16 seconds. Atlanta had it for 24 minutes and 44 seconds, and a team sitting on the bench cannot score. That trade, fewer yards for more time, is one of the oldest choices in how an offence is built.

    Nobody builds a highlight reel out of running plays, but somehow Tampa Bay built a win out of 56 of them.

    What counts as a block in the back

    This weekend a clip of Arizona guard Hjalte Frohodlt has being doing the rounds. You see Arizona’s Tyler Allgeier run 63 yards for a touchdown at Dallas, and guard Hjalte Froholdt flattening Cowboys rookie safety Caleb Downs.

    As you can imagine the comments were quite something, with a fair number of people arguing it should have been a flag for an illegal block in the back. No penalty was called and the run stood.

    Here is what the rule asks for, from Rule 12, Section 1, Article 3 of the 2026 NFL rulebook. It is a foul if an offensive blocker:

    “(b) blocks an opponent (from behind) in the back above the opponent’s waist, or uses his hands or arms to push an opponent from behind in a manner that affects his movement, except in close-line play.”

    So far, so obvious: do not shove someone in the back from behind. The part that decides most of these arguments is the three exceptions printed directly underneath it. The use of hands on the back is not a foul when:

    “(1) a player is making a personal attempt to recover a loose ball; (2) the opponent turns away from the blocker when contact is imminent; or (3) both of the blocker’s hands are on the opponent’s side.”

    Number two is the one that matters here. If the defender turns his own back into a block that was already coming, it is not a foul, because the blocker did not choose the angle.

    An official watching live has a fraction of a second to judge who turned and when, from one position on a crowded field, and the penalty if he gets it wrong is ten yards.

    This is why two people can watch the same replay and both end up disagreeing.

    Eleven points down, and 105 yards of penalties

    Next up the team everyone apart from Kansas City fans and Swifties hate, Kansas City. The Chiefs led Denver 24-13 going into the fourth quarter and lost 28-24.

    Bo Nix threw a two-yard touchdown to Nate Adkins, then found Jaylen Waddle for the two-point conversion, then Jonah Coleman ran it in from five yards with two minutes left. It was Nix’s 15th career game-winning drive, which ties Dak Prescott for the most by any player in his first three seasons since at least 1950.

    Kansas City actually outgained Denver 399 yards to 294, and Patrick Mahomes threw for 321 with three touchdowns and no interceptions. What they also did was commit 11 penalties for 105 yards, a figure Sam Hoppen picked out as the game’s biggest blemish in his weekly round-up.

    Harrison Butker also missed from 54 yards in the fourth quarter, and Wil Lutz did not miss anything for Denver.

    Penalty yards are the quietest way to lose a game. A holding call wipes out a gain and puts you in a worse spot than before the play; a pre-snap flag turns a manageable second down into a long one.

    None of it shows up in the yardage column that gets read out afterwards, which is why a team can outgain its opponent by a hundred yards and still be beaten.

    Nix found Mahomes on the field afterwards. “I’ve always admired you,” he told him. “I was scared to death when you got the ball back.”

    A Quartet of QB stories for week 8

    Michael Penix Jr. threw the ball 24 times for Atlanta, completed eight, and gave it away four. Baker Mayfield threw it three times, completed none, and won by sixteen.

    Denver was stranger still, because by every passing measure Patrick Mahomes had the better afternoon: 30 of 41 for 321 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a rating of 120.1, against Bo Nix’s 20 of 32 for 222 and a 103.9. He lost. Nix threw for a hundred fewer yards and got the fourth quarter, which is the only column that pays. The pair of them had quite the love in at the end, which does not always happen.

    Spare a thought meanwhile for Justin Herbert, whose Chargers lost 24-9 at the Rams and are now (the only winless team left in the league at 0-7).

  • Raiders Week 8: A kickoff return did what the run game couldn’t

    Raiders Week 8: A kickoff return did what the run game couldn’t

    The Raiders were out-rushed by 71 yards at MetLife, failed to reach 100 rushing yards for the fifth game in a row, gave up 166 on the ground, and won by five. Dylan Laube is a pretty big part of how we did it.

    This was not the prettiest of wins, but boy did we need it. It was just what the doctor ordered. Did you know there is a really cool medical themed celebration you can do…

    How Raiders week 8 game went

    Raiders 38, Jets 33

    Team Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pts Yds Pass Rush TO
    New York Jets61773334562901661
    Las Vegas Raiders77141038342247950

    MetLife Stadium, Sunday 1 November 2026. The Raiders trailed 23-14 at half-time and outscored the Jets 24-10 after the break. Yds = total yards, TO = turnovers committed. Sources: Fox Sports and Raiders.com.

    The Raiders trailed by nine at the break and outscored the Jets 24-10 after it. The Jets did out-gain us by 114 yards and lost, which is the sort of sentence that usually means a stack of turnovers.

    There was only one, and it came at the right end of the field: Jeremy Chinn’s interception in the end zone.

    What did win the Raiders the game?

    The there were three key things that I think led to us winning against the Jets.

    Dylan Laube returned a kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown.

    A kickoff return is the play that starts a half or follows a score: one team kicks the ball downfield, the other catches it and runs it back as far as they can, and almost always that is 25 or 30 yards and a whistle.

    Taking one the whole way is rare enough that this was the first in the entire NFL this season, and the first by a Raider since Jacoby Ford in 2011.

    Laube leads the league at 34.1 yards a return, and Next Gen Stats clocked him at 20.97 mph. This was not a one-off either.

    Ted Nguyen and Marshall Newhouse noted on the Just Win podcast that the Raiders have been one of the league’s best return teams all season, and that Laube had gone close several times before one finally went the distance.

    If kick and punt units are the part of the game you skip, special teams decoded is the page, and this is the week it earned its place.

    Kirk Cousins scored four touchdowns

    Three tthrough the air and one on a quarterback sneak, completing a season-best 73.1% of his passes for 247 yards without giving the ball away.

    The third of them, a two-yard throw to Jalen Nailor with 11:33 left, put the Raiders in front for the first time since the opening quarter and made Nailor the eighth different player to catch a touchdown from Cousins this season.

    It is Cousins’ first four-touchdown game since 2024, and he is only the third Raiders quarterback to reach 19 touchdown passes through eight games, after Daryle Lamonica in 1969 and Derek Carr in 2015.

    Jeremy Chinn intercepted the pass that ended it

    in the end zone, the team’s 13th takeaway of the season and tied third-most in the league.

    A takeaway is the defense winning the ball back by force rather than waiting to be handed it, and it is the one thing this defense has done well all year.

    And Brock Bowers did something no tight end has done

    Seven catches, 92 yards, two touchdowns, and the highest offensive grade of any tight end in the league in Week 8 at 92.1, per Pro Football Focus.

    He is now the first tight end in NFL history to gain at least 70 receiving yards in each of his first six games of a season, which is a stranger record than it sounds given he missed the first two games injured, so his season began in Week 3

    Six of those seven catches came with him lined up outside rather than beside the offensive line, which is where a tight end normally lines up, and that ties the most by any tight end in a game since at least 2016.

    That is the Raiders solving a problem by moving their best player somewhere he is not supposed to be.

    The defensive performance did not change

    Points scored and conceded, by week

    Wk Opponent Res For Against Net
    1Miami DolphinsW2713+14
    2Los Angeles ChargersW2614+12
    3New Orleans SaintsW3527+8
    4Kansas City ChiefsL2730-3
    5New England PatriotsL1745-28
    6Buffalo BillsL3033-3
    7Los Angeles RamsL2135-14
    8New York JetsW3833+5
    Season221230-9

    Through Week 8, as of 3 November 2026. Green marks 30 or more scored, red 30 or more conceded. The Raiders have now scored 30 or more three times and conceded 30 or more five times. Sources: Raiders.com and Fox Sports.

    The Jets ran for 166 yards. That is the fourth time in five games the Raiders have given up 165 or more on the ground, and the season figure is now 146.4 a game. Las Vegas managed 95 of their own, which is better than the 48 against the Rams and still under 100 for the fifth straight week. They have not passed 100 rushing yards in a game since New Orleans in Week 3.

    So the diagnosis from last week stands, and the rest of the defensive line reads the same way. The Jets gained more than 440 yards, Geno Smith threw for 290, and Adonai Mitchell had a career day with 142 receiving yards.

    The Jets gained more than 440 yards, Geno Smith threw for 290, and Adonai Mitchell had a career day with 142 receiving yards.

    The mechanism is the same one described after the Rams game, by different people. Ted Nguyen and Marshall Newhouse put it on the Jets playing three tight ends, what coaches call 13 personnel, and running straight at the Raiders with the extra bodies, with Jets runners going untouched for two or three yards before anyone reached them.

    Kirk Morrison called it an inserted blocker a fortnight ago. Both breakdowns land on the same root cause, a defensive tackle who can hold up against two men at once, and the Raiders do not have one. Defense decoded covers why that single position shapes everything behind it.

    And here is the part that should temper the celebration. The Jets ran the ball 26 times with their running backs, and only four of those came in the second half, while they were still ahead. The Raiders did not stop the run on Sunday. The Jets stopped running.

    The backfield changed hands, and it was planned

    Ashton Jeanty had two carries for nine yards, a career low. Mike Washington Jr had 25 for 83, both career highs by a distance, having never carried more than nine times in a game before.

    What that line leaves out is that Jeanty was busy anyway. He caught three passes for 64 yards, second on the team, including a 45-yard gain on the first play of the fourth quarter. So this was not a benching. It was a split: early-down carries to Washington, passing work to Jeanty.

    It was also decided in advance. Jeanty said the reduced workload was “communicated” to him before kick-off, and that he did not know whether his own comments had caused it. Splitting a backfield by down, one runner on first and second and another on third, is a normal way to use two different players, and downs explained covers why those downs ask for different things.

    Those comments, for anyone who missed the week: Jeanty said the Jets had “a couple of guys out there that don’t really want to tackle”, naming nobody. Demario Davis said “Yeah, saw it, heard it” and left it there. Minkah Fitzpatrick said he plays with “110% effort no matter who I’m playing against, no matter what they said”.

    Klint Kubiak said the workload was his call and not a response to any of that. “Ashton is still going to be a big part of our team,” he said, and “he’s going to be a huge part of our run game going forward,” and on what happens next, “we just have to look at the film because we have two runners that we believe in”.

    Not everyone is convinced, and nor entirely am I. Going from most of the touches to almost none is abrupt for a decision about form on its own.

    But a coach can mean every word of that and still have made a point, and those two are not exclusive.

    What matters more is that Washington has earned the early downs and Jeanty is dangerous with the ball in the air.

    Jeanty’s own line was the right one: “We won. It doesn’t matter how I feel about how [many] times I get the ball”.

    Week 8 in social posts

    Two of them are worth your time for reasons that have nothing to do with analysis. I have already shared it up the article but here it is again!

    Cousins marked a touchdown with a celebration mimicking the physio work on his elbow, which the broadcast called a wellness celebration, and the NFL posted it.

    Then Kirko Chainz came back out on the flight home, for the second time this season. A 38-year-old quarterback in several kilograms of jewellery is not a tactical observation, but I just love how much these team seems to be a unit and having fun!

    NFL+ posted the Bowers record, and these are the now infamous comments from Ashton Jeanty before the game:

    Where they sit now

    AFC West standings

    RTeamMPWLPDPCTForm
    1Denver Broncos862+70.750LWWLWWWW
    2Kansas City Chiefs752+360.714WWWWWLL
    3Las Vegas Raiders844-90.500WWWLLLLW
    4Los Angeles Chargers707-760.000LLLLLLL

    2026 season, after Week 8, as of 3 November. MP = matches played, PD = points difference, PCT = win percentage, form runs oldest to newest left to right. Kansas City took their bye in Week 5 and the Chargers in Week 7, so both have played one game fewer. Source: NFL.com.

    4-4, and the schedule from here is the hard part rather than the easy part. If you want to know what a .500 record in early November is actually worth, play-offs and seeding is the page.

    The rest of the league had its own week, and I have written it up in the full Week 8 roundup.

    One win does not settle an argument

    I have been making the case for a month that this team is better than its record, and a 4-4 team with 221 points and the division’s best scoring offense is the version of that argument I have been waiting to be able to make without caveats.

    Except there is still a caveat, and it ran for 166 yards on Sunday. A win built on a 95-yard return and a goal-line interception is a win, banked and permanent.

    It is also not a repeatable formula, because you cannot plan for a kickoff return touchdown and the Raiders have had precisely one since 2011.

    What I would rather see in a fortnight is a boring one. Twenty carries that go somewhere, an opponent held under a hundred, and a win nobody has to explain.

    But I wouldn’t be a Raiders fan if we were boring now would I.

  • NFL Week 7: the 20-yard line Kansas City never crossed

    NFL Week 7: the 20-yard line Kansas City never crossed

    In one hundred and fifty-three previous starts, playoffs included, Patrick Mahomes had never played a game in which Kansas City failed to reach the opposition’s 20-yard line. On Sunday night in Seattle they managed exactly that, losing 20-3 without once crossing into it once.

    The NFL week 7 results

    Week 7 results
    2026 season · 14 games · kickoff times US Eastern
    Thursday 22 October
    CHIPatriots at Bears 30-24
    Sunday 25 October
    PITSteelers at Saints (Paris) 16-10
    MINColts at Vikings 16-10
    MIADolphins at Jets 28-25
    CINBengals at Ravens 35-13
    CLEBrowns at Titans 27-24
    TBBuccaneers at Panthers 43-13
    ATL49ers at Falcons 29-20
    NYGGiants at Texans 27-21OT
    DENBroncos at Cardinals 30-16
    LARRams at Raiders 35-21
    DETPackers at Lions 20-17
    Sunday night
    SEAChiefs at Seahawks 20-3
    Monday night
    DALCowboys at Eagles 38-21
    On a bye: Bills, Jaguars, Chargers, Commanders

    On a bye: Bills, Jaguars, Chargers, Commanders. Scores via ESPN.

    Following the Raiders like me? They lost 35-21 at home to the Rams, a fourth straight defeat, and sit at 3-4. For a review and my fan take check out the Raiders Week 7 review.

    What is the red zone?

    Many of you will already know this, but for anyone who is new to the NFL here you go:

    The red zone is the last 20 yards before the end zone. There is no red paint on the field and no rule in the book that mentions it; it is simply the stretch where scoring a touchdown stops being a hope and becomes a reasonable expectation. Teams track how often they get there and what they do when they arrive, because it separates moving the ball from actually putting points on the board.

    Why is should you care about the red zone?

    The red zone is the last 20 yards before the end zone. It’s not actually red! It is a measure teams keep for themselves, because how often you get there and then what you do when you are there are important in terms of understanding performance, as it can make or break an offence!

    This was a good game for me to review as a rookie fan, because I had never understood what the red zone was and had assumed it was a fancy way of saying close to the end zone. That turns out to be exactly what it is, which would have saved me a lot of nodding along.

    A typical team gets there about three times a game. Across the league this season it is running at 3.3 trips, counting any drive with a snap inside the opponent’s 20 according to Sharp Football Analysis. So zero is does not just mean having a bad night. Zero means one of two things:

    1. Oppositions defence was exceptional
    2. Or your own offence fell apart

    In Kansas City’s case it was the first, the defence was strong. They went into Sunday having reached the red zone more often than any team in the league, 4.6 times a game. Seattle were letting opponents in less often than anyone, 2.2 a game.

    The best offence in the league at getting to that line met the best defence at keeping teams away from it, and lost 20-3.

    Getting to the red zone is only half the battle. Everywhere else on the field a defence has to worry about someone getting behind them so they spread out. Inside the 20 there is nothing behind them left to protect, so they pack in tight and every yard has to be won in a crowd.

    That is why an offence changes shape once it arrives in the red zone.
    Kansas City finished with 213 yards, 11 first downs, three third-down conversions from eleven, four dropped passes and one score, a 50-yard Harrison Butker field goal in the third quarter.

    Mahomes went 19 of 33 for 165 yards and threw an interception. Even the one gift they got all night, a 65-yard interception return, failed to put them inside Seattle’s 20.

    Seattle, meanwhile, ran the ball 41 times for 153 yards and held it for nearly 36 minutes. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught nine for 150 and the game’s only receiving touchdown. “We put on a clinic,” said safety Nick Emmanwori afterwards.

    Philadelphia found out what losing a quarterback costs

    Last week we learned that Jalen Hurts would miss the rest of the season with blood clots. With everyone’s concern, rightly so, being on his health and the long lasting impact this will have on him I was not as focused on their next game.

    On Monday night, we saw the first real look at what that means for the Eagles franchise, as Dallas won 38-21 at their place.

    Tanner McKee started in Hurts’s place and threw a touchdown, and Philadelphia were not disgraced; they led 21-20 in the third quarter. But Dak Prescott threw three touchdown passes without an interception, two of them to CeeDee Lamb, and Dallas ran for 204 yards on 38 carries.

    Brandon Aubrey kicked three from three including a 55-yarder. The Cowboys scored on their last four possessions.

    This fixture has its own long history, and if you want the background to why a Dallas win in Philadelphia carries more than the three points in the standings, the Cowboys and Eagles rivalry page covers it, and the live games page tracks when they next meet.

    Just to add that the more important aspect of this is the well being of Jalen Hurts and all other NFL athletes. I hope there is a thorough internal review and they improve their duty of care towards the players.

    The blocked extra point that was worth two points

    This one also was a new one for me! Tampa Bay beat Carolina 43-13, and tucked inside it was a play that I did not know was legal.

    Carolina scored a touchdown to make it 6-17 and lined up for the extra point. Tampa Bay blocked it, Zyon McCollum picked the ball up and carried it all the way down the length of the field, and Tampa Bay were awarded two points. Not Carolina. The score went to 6-19.

    Here is the rule, from Rule 11, Section 3, Article 2 of the 2026 NFL rulebook:

    “(b) If a Try results in a touchdown by either team, two points are awarded.”

    The phrase doing the work is “by either team.” The kick after a touchdown is not a free point being handed over, it is a live scrimmage down called a Try, and the defending team is playing it too. If they get hold of the ball and reach the other end, they score, and because the rule values any Try touchdown at two, they get two rather than the one the kick was worth.

    And as you listen below you can hear the commentator say the flag is down as McCollum sets off down the field!


    It is rare enough that most fans will go seasons without seeing it. It is also a neat illustration of something the rulebook does constantly: it writes rules for both teams at once, even on a play that looks like a formality.

    More of that sort of thing is in how scoring works, and the unit involved is explained in special teams decoded.

    Two games, two things I did not know

    Two games this week taught me something I did not know. Kansas City losing in Seattle without ever reaching the 20 showed me what the red zone is really measuring, which is how often you get there as much as what you do when you arrive. Tampa Bay being awarded two points off a blocked extra point showed me that the kick after a touchdown is a live play, and that both teams are allowed to win it.

    Both of these came from something going wrong rather than right. Looking forward to NFL Week 8 and what interesting turn of events we may see this Halloween weekend!

  • The Raiders’ run game problem is a run defense problem

    The Raiders’ run game problem is a run defense problem

    This was not a fun watch, after the last 3 games, I was not very motivated to get this review done.

    But when I listened to coach Kubiak say “We’re not going to run the ball until we stop the run. Until you make the game competitive” when asked on Sunday why his offense keeps failing to run the ball. I found myself happy we have Klint Kubiak as coach, but also wanted to get my review done!

    What did Coach Kubiak mean?

    A team that is 22 points down at half-time does not get to run the ball, because running takes time and a team that far behind has none. The run game is not broken independently. It is downstream.

    Before we jump in, last week I said that our takeaways were doing the work, so if they came back and the yardage stayed where it was, nothing had actually been fixed. We saw this clearly, as Las Vegas took the ball away twice, the most since Week 3, and the Rams ran for 199 yards and won by fourteen regardless. Nothing has been fixed.

    Raiders vs Rams: How the game went

    Rams 35, Raiders 21 at Allegiant Stadium, a fourth straight defeat, and 28-6 at half-time before a fourth quarter that made the final score look closer than the afternoon was.

    It started with a decision worth knowing about. Kubiak won the coin toss and took the ball, rather than deferring, which is the usual choice and means handing the opponent the first possession in exchange for taking the first one of the second half.

    He did it to attack a third-quarter problem the Raiders have had all season, which was discussed by the guys on Raiders Roundtable. They went three and out. The intent was right and the result was nothing, which is roughly the story of the whole afternoon.

    Rams 35, Raiders 21

    TeamPtsYdsPassRush1stD3rd downTO
    Los Angeles Rams35386187199285 of 102
    Las Vegas Raiders2135030248183 of 140

    Allegiant Stadium, Sunday 25 October 2026. Rams led 28-6 at half. Yds = total yards, TO = turnovers committed. Yardage, first downs and third down from Fox Sports and theScore, which agree on every figure. Season context from Pro Football Reference.

    Third down is where a game like this is actually lost. The Raiders converted three of fourteen, the Rams five of ten. A conversion is simply gaining enough yards to be given a fresh set of four attempts, and a team that fails eleven of them hands the ball back eleven times. If the downs system is new to you, downs explained covers it in a couple of minutes

    The red zone was worse, perhaps not as bad for us as Kansas City this weekend but bad enough. Inside the opponent’s twenty, the Rams scored touchdowns on all five trips and the Raiders on one of five.

    Las Vegas now converts 46.4% of its red zone visits, fourth-lowest in the league, while sitting in the top ten for getting there at all. Matt Gay, 17 from 19 on field goals, has been quietly turning stalled drives into three points all season, which flatters the offense and masks the problem.

    Raiders vs Rams: The number, in both directions

    Read the Net column down the page. One positive number, in Week 1, and then six games of being out-rushed, four of them by more than a hundred yards. Across the season the Raiders have run for 523 yards and allowed 1,005, which is close to twice as many.

    The run game, both directions, 2026

    WkOpponentResGainedAllowedNet
    1Miami DolphinsW13074+56
    2Los Angeles ChargersW57127-70
    3New Orleans SaintsW113148-35
    4Kansas City ChiefsL72189-117
    5New England PatriotsL38165-127
    6Buffalo BillsL65103-38
    7Los Angeles RamsL48199-151
    Season5231005-482

    Rushing yards only, through Week 7, as of 27 October 2026. Gained is what the Raiders ran for, Allowed is what the opponent ran for, Net is the difference. Red marks a game under 100 gained or 150 and over allowed. Source: Pro Football Reference game logs.

    The league ranks put numbers on how unusual that is. Las Vegas allows 143.6 rushing yards a game, third-most in the NFL, and 5.0 yards every time somebody runs at them, second-most (Raiders.com).

    At the other end, 523 rushing yards puts the offense in the league’s bottom five, and they have not passed 100 in a game since New Orleans in Week 3. Ashton Jeanty averaged 1.9 yards a carry on Sunday.

    Next Gen Stats had the Rams converting 60% of their runs into successful plays, their own season high and the fourth-best rushing day any team has had this season. That is the thing Kubiak was pointing at. Defense decoded covers why stopping the run is the job the rest of a defense is built on top of.

    The numbers say what is happening. Kirk Morrison, a former NFL linebacker and a Raiders leading tackler for several seasons, explained on the club’s own Raiders Roundtable why it keeps happening. Teams are inserting an extra blocker, usually a second tight end, into the line before the snap.

    The Raiders over-pursue towards where the run appears to be going, and that opens a cutback lane behind them, which is the runner’s chance to plant and go back against the flow into the space the defense has just vacated.

    Morrison was careful about what he was not saying: this is not an undisciplined defense, it is one whose assignments are going unfilled and whose edge is being set too softly. His word for the fix was “correctable”, which is a more useful verdict than any of the angry ones.

    Raiders Monthly Tracker: Seven games, four seasons

    This is where the four-straight-losses “feeling” meets the data, and the two do not agree.

    Across the four defeats the Raiders have conceded an average of 35.8 points a game, and four opponents in a row have scored 30 or more (Raiders Roundtable).

    Both of those check out against the game logs: 30, 45, 33 and 35. Stretch it to five games and every opponent since New Orleans has scored at least 27, which is a not great.

    Through seven games, four seasons compared

    SeasonRecPF/gPA/gYds/gRush/gTATO marginDiff
    20233-416.023.0316.4129.05-10-49
    20242-517.726.1316.9136.73-13-59
    20252-514.725.7328.6103.47-5-77
    20263-426.128.1373.7143.612+4-14

    The first seven games of each season. Per-game figures. PF = points scored, PA = points allowed, Yds = total yards allowed, Rush/g = rushing yards allowed, TA = takeaways, TO margin = takeaways minus giveaways, Diff = points scored minus points allowed across the seven games. Each of these seasons played seven games in its first seven weeks, so the comparison is like for like. Source: Pro Football Reference game logs, 2023 to 2026.

    Four columns in that table are the best of the four seasons, and not by a little.

    Points scored: 26.1 a game.

    The three seasons before this one managed 16.0, 17.7 and 14.7. This offense puts up roughly ten points a game more than last year’s did. Ten points is the difference between being beaten and being in the game at the end of it.

    Takeaways: 12.

    A takeaway is the defense winning the ball back by force instead of waiting to be given it, either by catching a pass meant for the other team or by recovering the ball when a player drops it. Twelve in seven games is more than double any of the other three seasons, which managed 5, 3 and 7.

    Turnover margin: +4.

    That is takeaways minus the number of times the Raiders have handed the ball over themselves. A positive number means they are winning that exchange. The last three seasons sat at -10, -13 and -5 at this stage, so this is the first time in four years the Raiders have been on the right side of it.

    Points difference: -14.

    Every point scored across the seven games, minus every point conceded. The Raiders are 14 points underwater. At the same stage, the last three teams were 49, 59 and 77 points underwater. Those sides were not losing tight games, they were being taken apart.

    Then there is the fifth column, and it goes the other way. The Raiders are giving up 143.6 rushing yards a game, meaning yards the opposition gains by running the ball rather than throwing it.

    The three seasons before this one gave up 129.0, 136.7 and 103.4. The team that won three games all last season stopped the run 40 yards a game better than this one does.

    So the season has not collapsed. One column has got worse while four have got better, and the one that got worse is the one that decides whether a team gets to play the way it wants to. Which is what Kubiak said in a single sentence on Sunday.

    Raiders vs Rams: Highlights and takes

    The NFL posted the fake punt, which was the most fun the Raiders had all day. A fake punt is exactly what it sounds like: the team lines up to kick the ball away on fourth down, then runs a play instead. This one was a throw, by the punter, AJ Cole, for the second completion of his career (Raiders Roundtable). It also explains an oddity in the box score, where the Raiders are credited with seven more passing yards than Kirk Cousins threw for. Special teams decoded covers why the units that take the field for kicks are a third of the game newcomers mostly ignore.

    Sanjit T. posted in the second quarter, at 21-3, that the defense was pathetic. I include it because it is what the timeline actually sounded like on Sunday, and because the fourth quarter did not change many minds.

    Mitchell Renz went further on Monday, with a video arguing it is time to talk about trading players after four straight losses. His frustration is aimed squarely at the defensive coaching. The table above says something more specific than the thumbnail does: this defense takes the ball away more than any Raiders defense in four years and stops the run worse than any of them. Those are different problems with different fixes, and only one of them is costing games right now.

    Maxx Crosby went to the same place, speaking on The Rush Podcast two days after the game: “We couldn’t stop the run and didn’t play the game we wanted to. We’ve been through worse and it sucks, trust me, it makes me wanna throw up. We’re gonna get better and I know we’re gonna respond.”

    He is the best player on this defense and he could have pointed anywhere. The offense, the injuries, the run of opponents. He pointed at the run, and he said “we”.

    And “we’ve been through worse” is not a man talking himself round. You can see it in tracker table above. Minus 49, minus 59 and minus 77 at this stage in the three seasons before this one, against minus 14 now. Crosby played in all three of them, which is probably why he can tell the difference between a bad month and a bad team.

    I personally hope all the talk of trade around him is just that, talk.

    And Adam Schefter reported that Kubiak has confirmed Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback, with the line “There is no controversy.” That settles the question I raised last week about Fernando Mendoza, at least for the Jets on Sunday.

    Cousins answered it himself, and better: “If I’m not the best option, then I don’t want to be out there either. I want our football team to have the best chance to win games”reported the Raiders Roundtable. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes. The case for changing quarterback has never really been about him.

    The Raiders standings

    AFC West standings

    RTeamMPWLPDPCTForm
    1Kansas City Chiefs651+400.833WWWWWL
    2Denver Broncos752+30.714LWWLWWW
    3Las Vegas Raiders734-140.429WWWLLLL
    4Los Angeles Chargers606-610.000LLLLLL

    2026 season, after Week 7, as of 27 October. MP = matches played, PD = points difference, PCT = win percentage, form runs oldest to newest left to right. Kansas City took their bye in Week 5 and the Chargers in Week 7, so both have played one game fewer. Sources: NFL.com and Pro Football Reference, which agree on every figure.

    Third, and bottom of the division on points difference other than the winless Chargers. But look at the points-scored column behind that table: 183, which is more than Kansas City’s 143 and more than Denver’s 144.

    The Raiders have scored more points than anybody in the AFC West and have the third-best record in it, which is the whole argument of this piece sitting in a standings table.

    If the way a 3-4 record turns into a January place is still fuzzy, play-offs and seeding is the page for it, and it is worth reading before writing this season off on a record alone.

    The rest of the league had its own week, and I have written it up in the full Week 7 roundup.

    My thoughts after week 7

    I keep seeing this described as last season happening again, and the data isn’t quite backing it.

    The 2025 team scored fourteen points a game and was beaten by eleven. This one scores twenty-six and is beaten by two. Those are not the same season, whatever the two records look like side by side.

    What they do share is one column, he rushing numbers. If the rushing number comes down, a team that already scores and already takes the ball away starts winning the games it is currently losing by a touchdown.

    If it does not, the rest stops mattering, because a defense that cannot stop the run never lets its own offense on the field for long enough to matter.

    I said last week I liked the coach and thought he should be given time. Nothing on Sunday changed that.

    He was asked about his offense and answered about his defense, and on seven games of evidence he is fixing them in the right order.

  • Elway’s Helicopter: the first down he chose over his own safety

    Elway’s Helicopter: the first down he chose over his own safety

    John Elway’s most famous Super Bowl play gained eight yards and didn’t score. It came late in the third quarter of Super Bowl XXXII, with the game tied, when the 37-year-old Denver Broncos quarterback ran for a first down instead of sliding to safety. Three Green Bay Packers defenders hit him in mid-air and spun him round, which is why the play is known as the Helicopter.

    This is the second of five posts explaining famous Super Bowl plays in the run-up to Super Bowl LXI. The first, on Joe Montana’s winning drive, was about a quarterback keeping calm. Elway’s is about the opposite instinct: taking a hit he could have avoided.

    John Elway’s ‘Helicopter Run’ against Green Bay in the Super Bowl 🔥 #nfl…
    by u/gridiron_decoded in NFLUK

    Super Bowl XXXII Results

    Denver beat Green Bay 31-24 for the franchise’s first Super Bowl win.

    GameSuper Bowl XXXII
    Date25 January 1998
    VenueQualcomm Stadium, San Diego
    ResultDenver Broncos 31, Green Bay Packers 24
    MVPTerrell Davis, Denver running back

    Sources: Pro Football Reference (game details); CBS Sports (MVP).

    Late in the third quarter, with the score tied at 17, Denver had the ball on the Green Bay 12. It was third-and-6: their third attempt, with six yards still needed for a first down, which earns a fresh set of tries. Elway dropped back to pass and found no one open, so he ran.

    He got the first down. Two plays later, Terrell Davis scored from a yard out to put Denver 24-17 up. On paper, that’s one successful third down on a drive someone else finished.

    Why this Super Bowl mattered to Elway

    This was Elway’s fourth Super Bowl, and he had lost the other three. The heaviest defeat was 55-10 to the San Francisco 49ers, still the biggest winning margin in Super Bowl history.

    Few expected Denver to win this one. The Packers were the defending champions, with the league’s reigning MVP, Brett Favre, at quarterback. Their conference, the NFC, had won 13 Super Bowls in a row. Denver played in the AFC, the league’s other conference (how the two conferences work).

    What a scramble is, and why quarterbacks slide

    A scramble is a quarterback running with the ball because the passing play has broken down. The quarterback is the player a team can least afford to lose, so running brings a problem: runners get hit.

    The rulebook gives runners a way out, called sliding. Here’s the wording from Rule 7, Section 2, Article 1 of the NFL rulebook:

    “When a runner slides or dives feet or head first or simulates sliding or diving, the ball is dead the instant he touches the ground with anything other than his hands or his feet.”

    Note 1 to the same article adds:

    “Defenders are required to treat a sliding or diving runner as they would a runner who is down by contact.”

    In plain English, a runner who slides is giving himself up. The play ends the moment he goes down, and defenders must treat him as already tackled, so they hold off. (Being down by contact means a defender has touched you and you’ve gone to ground. That ends the play.)

    The catch is in that first line. Because the play ends where he goes down, a slide keeps only the yards he already has. Protection costs yards.

    That’s the 2026 wording, so it isn’t necessarily word for word the rule as it stood in 1998.

    The play: why didn’t he slide?

    Elway needed to reach the 6-yard line. By the time the Packers closed in, he was around the 7. A slide there ends the play a yard short and leaves Denver on fourth down, their last attempt.

    From that close, fourth down is usually where a team kicks a field goal (three points for a kick between the posts; scoring explained here). That would have given Denver the lead, but Elway knew a field goal might not be enough against the NFC’s highest-scoring offence. They needed the touchdown.

    So instead of sliding, he went head first at the marker. Three defenders reached him in the air and the collision spun him sideways. He came down with the first down. Denver’s radio commentator, Dave Logan, called it on air the greatest eight-yard run in Super Bowl history.

    None of this was in the play call. It was Elway’s decision.

    Did the run win the game?

    Not on its own. Terrell Davis scored the touchdown two plays later. Davis was also the game’s MVP (most valuable player), with 157 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He managed it after missing most of the second quarter with a migraine.

    The run didn’t have a clear impact on the game. But wide receiver Rod Smith said that once their quarterback ran like that, “they realized we weren’t going to be denied.” That’s a player’s view, not a statistic, and Denver were already moving the ball well on that drive before Elway ran.

    Reckless, or exactly right?

    On one hand you could say that it was a risk he didn’t need. A 37-year-old quarterback dived into three defenders on third down in a tied Super Bowl. Had he been hurt, the same decision would read as a mistake.

    The other is that the risk was the point. A slide meant fourth down, a yard short. Going for the marker kept Denver’s touchdown chance alive, and his team saw how much he wanted it. It was also at his age, his last Super Bowl appearance.

    I don’t think the two cancel each other out. The yard advantage was real, and but so was the risk.

    The ring, and what came after

    Denver held on, and Elway finally had his title. Afterwards he said of the three defeats before it: “This one erases those other three, no question.”

    A year later he won the Super Bowl again and was named its MVP. It was the last game he played.

    Related on the site: the slide rule has stayed as it is, but some plays pushed the NFL to rewrite its rulebook outright. I’ve written about three, each one with the Raiders in it: the Immaculate Reception, the Holy Roller and the Tuck Rule Game.

    Next in the series: fourth down at the goal line, and a trick play where the quarterback catches the touchdown. The Philly Special.

  • NFL Week 6: Arizona won without scoring a touchdown

    NFL Week 6: Arizona won without scoring a touchdown

    Jalen Hurts will miss the rest of the season. Philadelphia’s quarterback has deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in both lungs, and is being treated with blood thinners (CBS Philadelphia). That is a serious condition, and where it leaves the Eagles’ season is a long way down the list of what matters about it.

    The football was strange in its own right. Arizona beat the Rams 18-16 on Sunday without scoring a single touchdown, which takes some doing, and the Rams lost partly because they had run out of fit kickers.

    The NFL Week 6 results

    nfl Week 6 results
    2026 season · 14 games · kickoff times US Eastern
    Thursday 15 October
    DENSeahawks at Broncos 17-14
    Sunday 18 October
    HOUTexans at Jaguars 34-31
    TENTitans at Colts 26-20
    CARPanthers at Eagles 25-14
    PITSteelers at Buccaneers 26-19
    CLERavens at Browns 13-10
    NOSaints at Giants 34-27
    CHIBears at Falcons 31-23
    NEJets at Patriots 26-19
    ARICardinals at Rams 18-16
    KCChargers at Chiefs 22-6
    BUFBills at Raiders 33-30
    Sunday night
    GBCowboys at Packers 23-13
    Monday night
    SFCommanders at 49ers 23-17
    On a bye: Bengals, Lions, Dolphins, Vikings

    Scores via ESPN.

    Following the Raiders? They lost 33-30 to Buffalo and sit at 3-3. The game is broken down in the Raiders Week 6 review.

    How you win a game without scoring a touchdown

    Arizona did not reach the end zone once. They still won, because Chad Ryland kicked six field goals from six attempts, and six times three is eighteen.

    A field goal is the consolation prize of a drive. When an attack stalls short of the end zone, the kicking unit comes on and tries to put the ball between the posts for three points, rather than the seven a touchdown and its extra point are worth (how scoring works has the full breakdown).

    It is the smaller score, so a team that lives on field goals is usually a team that cannot finish. Arizona made that maths work anyway, with the last of the six, from 43 yards, landing with three seconds left.

    What made it possible was the state of the other kicker. The Rams had already sacked Harrison Mevis days earlier, after his misses in the overtime loss to Buffalo (CBS Sports). His replacement, Blake Grupe, made a 44-yard kick in the first quarter and was then injured in that same debut (Yahoo Sports). By the fourth quarter the Rams’ extra point was being kicked by Ethan Evans, who is their punter and had spent the afternoon as the holder.

    So one team had a kicker who could not miss, and the other had nobody left to kick. The margin was two points. If you have ever wondered what the special teams actually are, and why clubs carry a specialist whose entire job is a handful of kicks, this is the game to point at.

    When I first started on my journey into Football, the special teams had been something I had not really paid serious attention to and did not understand the importance of them. Especially the Kicker. However, the Rams have been a great case study for me as a Rookie NFL fan. Sorry, Rams fans – but you have a great sense humour from some of the comments I saw on X!

    What a general manager actually does, and why Indianapolis sacked theirs

    The Colts dismissed Chris Ballard, their general manager of ten seasons, after Sunday’s 26-20 home defeat to Tennessee left them 2-4 (NFL.com, Colts.com).

    The head coach decides what happens on Sunday; the general manager decides who is available to him, they do not coach. Drafting, signing, trading, releasing, and keeping all of it inside the salary cap, that is the GM’s remit.

    The draft is the part of the job most visible from outside, and the part a GM is judged on longest. So when a team sacks a general manager rather than a coach, the message is that the problem is judged to be the roster rather than the gameplan.

    Owner and chief executive Carlie Irsay-Gordon said the change was deliberately made during the season rather than after it, because “waiting would only delay the important work that needs to begin now” (Colts.com). In-season changes at that level are unusual. For how the wider machinery fits together, how the NFL works covers it.

    What “dead last in EPA” actually means

    Tennessee’s Cam Ward is having a hard first season, and NFL.com’s Kevin Patra put a number on it. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, Ward “ranks dead last in expected points added (EPA) per droback (-0.27)”.

    Expected points added scores a play by what it does to your chances of scoring, rather than by how far the ball travelled. Every spot on the field, at every down and distance, carries an average points value drawn from what has historically happened from there. Move into a better spot and that value rises, so the play earns positive EPA. Go backwards, or throw it to the other team, and it falls.

    Minus 0.27 per dropback means that on average, Tennessee’s pass plays were leaving them slightly worse off than before they started. That is the appeal of the stat, and why it has largely displaced passing yards in analysis: a quarterback can throw for 300 yards in a heavy defeat and still have cost his side. Passer rating versus QBR covers why the older numbers flatter people, and the QB stats page tracks the season.

    However, I have one caveat, because the article is doing the rounds. It is analysis rather than reporting, it quotes no club officials, and Patra’s own conclusion is that Ward “should get the rest of the season to show strides.”

    Tennessee also won on Sunday. A headline about quarterbacks at risk and a piece that says they will probably keep their jobs are not the same thing, which is worth remembering any time one of these lands in your timeline.

    The Kicker – A true MVP this week

    Arizona’s six field goals will be a trivia answer by Christmas. The thing underneath it lasts longer: every team carries one player whose entire contribution is a handful of kicks, and no obvious way to replace him if he pulls up lame in the first quarter. Los Angeles found that out, and lost by two.

    Each week the pace keeps building, we are almost at the half way point and I think post season there will be so much to look at, if the pace keeps building! Roll on Week 7!

  • Raiders Week 6: The defence is the worst in four years. The team is the best in four years.

    Raiders Week 6: The defence is the worst in four years. The team is the best in four years.

    The Raiders outgained Buffalo and lost by three. Three hundred and seventy-eight yards to three hundred and forty-five, thirty points on the board against the team with the best record in the AFC, and it still went down as a third straight defeat (Raiders.com).

    So this week I did something I have not done before, but should have done a while ago. I pulled the game logs for the last four seasons and lined them up. I expected the defence to come out looking like the problem. It does. What I did not expect is that the same six games contain the best Raiders start of the four.

    It is not a good run. But the Raiders are losing close, not losing badly, and that is more than the last three seasons could say.

    How the Bills vs Raiders game went

    Buffalo 33, Las Vegas 30, at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday 18 October (Raiders.com). Kirk Cousins threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns, the second a 44-yard strike to Tre Tucker with 92 seconds left that cut it to three (Raiders.com by the numbers).

    Bills 33, Raiders 30

    Team Pts Yds Pass Rush 1stD TO
    Buffalo Bills33345242103230
    Las Vegas Raiders3037831365251

    Allegiant Stadium, Sunday 18 October 2026. Yds = total net yards, 1stD = first downs, TO = turnovers committed. Source: Pro Football Reference.

    The margin came from the bits that do not show up there. Tyler Linderbaum’s false start on fourth and short was his third penalty in that situation this season, and it turned a go for it into a field goal attempt in the red zone (Raiders.com). Lose by three, leave three on the field, and the arithmetic does itself.

    The other one was a coverage bust. On the Just Win podcast, Ted Nguyen and Marshall Newhouse walked through the James Cook touchdown: a fake handoff pulled the defender covering Cook out of position, Cook ran straight into the flat, and nobody was near him. A play fake is exactly what it sounds like, the quarterback pretending to hand the ball off so the defence commits to a run that never happens, and it works on defenders who are already straining to stop the run. Which these ones were. If that mechanism is new to you, how the offence works is the place to start.

    Raiders defence, week by week, 2026

    Wk Opponent Res PA Yds Pass Rush TA
    1Miami DolphinsW13259185742
    2Los Angeles ChargersW143101831273
    3New Orleans SaintsW273812331484
    4Kansas City ChiefsL303992101890
    5New England PatriotsL455363711651
    6Buffalo BillsL333452421030

    Through Week 6, as of 20 October 2026. PA = points allowed, Yds = total yards allowed, TA = takeaways (opponent fumbles recovered plus interceptions). Source: Pro Football Reference.

    Nine takeaways, and then one

    Here is the number the season turns on. In the first three games the defence took the ball away nine times. In the last three it has taken it away once.

    Nothing else about the defence changed much. The points did.

    A takeaway is simply the defence getting the ball back by force, an interception or a recovered fumble, and it is the single most valuable thing a defence can do because it ends a drive and starts one. Through five games the Raiders had the second most in the NFL (ESPN). After a Buffalo game with none, they are fifth (Pro Football Reference). Still good. Just no longer carrying the whole thing.

    Raiders defence, week by week, 2026

    Wk Opponent Res PA Yds Pass Rush TA
    1Miami DolphinsW13259185742
    2Los Angeles ChargersW143101831273
    3New Orleans SaintsW273812331484
    4Kansas City ChiefsL303992101890
    5New England PatriotsL455363711651
    6Buffalo BillsL333452421030

    Through Week 6, as of 20 October 2026. PA = points allowed, Yds = total yards allowed, TA = takeaways (opponent fumbles recovered plus interceptions). Source: Pro Football Reference.

    Maxx Crosby put it plainly after the game: “Guys are hunting the ball. We’ve got to do a better job of taking the ball away” (Raiders.com).

    Four seasons of Raiders defences

    This is the bit I will be updating every month from now on. Same six games, four seasons, defence only.

    Through six games, four seasons compared

    Season Rec PF/g PA/g Yds/g Pass/g Rush/g TA Diff
    20233-316.721.8315.3193.7121.75-31
    20242-418.227.2326.5186.2140.32-54
    20252-417.224.8311.0215.795.37-46
    20263-327.027.0371.7237.3134.3100

    The first six games of each season. Per-game figures. PF = points scored, PA = points allowed, Yds = total yards allowed, TA = takeaways, Diff = points scored minus points allowed across the six games. Each of these seasons played six games in its first six weeks, so the comparison is like for like. Source: Pro Football Reference game logs, 2023 to 2026.

    Read the Yds column first. This defence is giving up 371.7 yards a game, which is more than the 2025 side that finished 3-14 and more than the 2024 side that finished 4-13. It is the worst of the four by a distance, and it is not close enough to argue about.

    Now read the one next to it. Twenty-seven points a game scored, against sixteen, eighteen and seventeen in the three years before. Level on points difference after six games, when the same point in 2024 was minus fifty-four. The offence is doing something the last three Raiders teams could not do at all.

    That is the honest shape of this season, and it is why “close isn’t good enough” is both true and the best sentence a Raiders player has said in three years. Being close is new.

    Points allowed by week, four seasons

    Wk 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026 opponent
    116221313Miami Dolphins
    238232014Los Angeles Chargers
    323364127New Orleans Saints
    424162530Kansas City Chiefs
    513344045New England Patriots
    617321033Buffalo Bills

    Points allowed in each of the first six weeks. Week numbers line up, opponents do not, so this shows the shape of each season rather than a fair fixture-by-fixture comparison. Source: Pro Football Reference.

    One caution on the week-by-week version of this, because I nearly fooled myself with it. Week numbers line up across seasons, opponents do not. Week 6 this year was Josh Allen. Week 6 last year was the Titans. A line that goes up and down across four seasons is partly measuring the fixture list, so the season-to-date table above is the one that holds, and the week-by-week one is for shape.

    What people are watching

    Four things worth your time from the week, none of them mine.

    Dov Kleiman called it the filthiest route you will ever see, and the clip has been everywhere since. What it is, is a blaze out. Brock Bowers sells an in-breaking route with his shoulders and his head, holds his body at the same level through the break so the corner reads dig, then cuts ninety degrees the other way and leaves him standing.

    Ted Nguyen’s point on the podcast was that this is a wide receiver’s route, the one Julio Jones made famous, and that he had tweeted asking to see Bowers run it roughly three minutes before Bowers ran it.

    He and Newhouse attached a less enjoyable observation to it: Bowers caught nothing at all in the first half, because Christian Benford and a bracket took him away, and the Raiders had nobody else to turn to.

    JJ Watt broke down Maxx Crosby’s pass rush on the CBS broadcast, clipped and posted by NFL on CBS. Worth it for how clearly he shows the double team. Crosby has been chipped 36 times this season, fifth most in the league, and faces a double team on 10.1% of his rushes (ESPN).

    The NFL posted the Tucker touchdown, which is the throw people will remember. Nguyen and Newhouse both made the same point about it on the podcast, that Cousins can still make that throw when the pocket is clean, and that the Raiders have not asked him to often enough.

    And Ryan McFadden’s five takeaways at ESPN is the most useful thing written about the defence this month, though note it was filed on 17 October, before the Bills game, so its record and league ranks are a week out of date. Its point about the young secondary stands: rookie corner Hezekiah Masses, who won AFC Defensive Player of the Week in Week 2, had allowed nine catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns in the three games after it.

    There is a quarterback conversation running alongside all this. Kevin Patra has Cousins on NFL.com’s list of starters at risk, with Fernando Mendoza the obvious successor. I am not in a hurry. Cousins is tied for the league lead with 14 touchdown passes (Raiders.com), and the table above says the offence is the thing that is working.

    Where they sit now: Week 6 Standings

    AFC West standings

    R Team MP W L PD PCT Form
    1Kansas City Chiefs550+571.000WWWWW
    2Denver Broncos642-110.667LWWLWW
    3Las Vegas Raiders63300.500WWWLLL
    4Los Angeles Chargers606-610.000LLLLLL

    2026 season, after Week 6, as of 20 October 2026. MP = matches played, PD = points difference, PCT = win percentage, form runs oldest to newest left to right. Kansas City took their bye in Week 5, so they have played one game fewer. Source: Pro Football Reference.

    Third, and the only team in the division other than Kansas City not carrying a negative points difference. If you want to know why 3-3 in this division is a different thing from 3-3 in another one, conferences and divisions explains how the groupings work, and play-offs and seeding covers what a record like this is actually worth in January.

    The rest of the league had its own week, and I have written all of it up in the full Week 6 roundup.

    What the tracker is for

    There is one question I have never been able to answer about this team: is it getting better? Every week produces an opinion and every opinion is about the last three hours.

    So from this month the four-season table goes in every month, and the thing I am watching in it is not points allowed, which moves with the fixture list, but the yards column against the takeaway column.

    If the yards come down, this is a defence that improved. If the takeaways come back instead, it is the same defence having a better month. Those are different futures and the table will tell them apart long before I can.

    Next for the Raiders is the Rams, who are 2-4 (Pro Football Reference). If the numbers above went past you, defence decoded covers what each unit is actually trying to do, and the defence stats page is refreshed every Tuesday.

    Roll on NFL Week 7 and lets hope we see the yards come down Raider Nation!

  • Montana to Taylor: the 92 yards that decided a Super Bowl

    Montana to Taylor: the 92 yards that decided a Super Bowl

    This is the first of five posts in the run-up to Super Bowl LXI, each one taking a single famous play apart to see what actually made it work.

    The story everyone tells about the greatest drive in Super Bowl history starts before the drive did. With just over three minutes left in Super Bowl XXIII, trailing by three and pinned 92 yards from the end zone, Joe Montana looked into the crowd and pointed out a film star to a nervous teammate. Then he went and won the game.

    This is the drive that showed us what a quarterback is supposed to do in the last four minutes, so it’s the right place to start a series on the plays that decided Super Bowls.

    What happened at Super Bowl XXIII?

    On 22 January 1989 at Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami, the San Francisco 49ers drove 92 yards in 11 plays and scored the winning touchdown with 34 seconds left. They won it with a 10-yard pass from Joe Montana to John Taylor. The 49ers beat the Cincinnati Bengals 20-16.

    John Taylor catches the game-winning 10-yard touchdown pass from Joe Montana with 39 seconds remaining in Super Bowl XXIII on January 22, 1989.

    Image: John Taylor catches the game-winning 10-yard touchdown pass from Joe Montana with 34 seconds remaining in Super Bowl XXIII on January 22, 1989. Source: Cursed Images: Bengals Edition.

    Decoded Takeaway: one drive, 92 yards, and the Super Bowl changed hands with half a minute on the clock.

    How the scoring went

    QtrTeamScoring playCINSFO
    Q149ersMike Cofer 41 yard field goal03
    Q2BengalsJim Breech 34 yard field goal33
    Q3BengalsJim Breech 43 yard field goal63
    Q349ersMike Cofer 32 yard field goal66
    Q3BengalsStanford Jennings 93 yard kickoff return (Jim Breech kick)136
    Q449ersJerry Rice 14 yard pass from Joe Montana (Mike Cofer kick)1313
    Q4BengalsJim Breech 40 yard field goal1613
    Q449ersJohn Taylor 10 yard pass from Joe Montana (Mike Cofer kick)1620
    Super Bowl XXIII, 22 January 1989, Miami. Green marks the team in front after each score. Final: 49ers 20, Bengals 16. CIN = Cincinnati, SFO = San Francisco. Source: Pro Football Reference.

    The situation: three points down, almost the length of the field to go

    Cincinnati had just kicked a 40-yard field goal to lead 16-13 with 3:20 left. A penalty on the kickoff return backed San Francisco up, so they started the drive on their own 8-yard line with 3:10 on the clock.

    To win, they had to cross almost the entire 100-yard field, score a touchdown (worth six points, plus the near-automatic extra kick, so seven in total, which you can read about on our scoring page), and do it before the clock ran out.

    A field goal, worth three, would only have tied it. They needed the touchdown.

    What makes the spot so hard is not just the distance. It’s that the defence knows you have to pass to cover ground quickly, and the clock is working against you as much as they are. Every throw that lands in the field of play keeps the clock running.

    Decoded Takeaway: 92 yards, three points down, and only a touchdown would do, which is close to the worst spot a team can be in and still win.

    The John Candy moment

    Before the drive, Montana did something that has become part of NFL folklore. He looked up into the stands and said to his tackle, Harris Barton, “Isn’t that John Candy?”, nodding at the actor in the crowd.

    Barton was the team’s self-confessed celebrity-spotter, and he had wound himself tight with nerves as the game slipped away. Montana knew exactly which button to press, pointed out Candy, and watched Barton relax. It worked. The huddle loosened, and then they went to work.

    It’s a small thing, but it’s the reason the drive carries the weight it does. The quarterback who is about to march 92 yards for the title is calm enough to people-watch. That composure is the whole story.

    Decoded Takeaway: the defining image of the drive happened before a single ball was snapped.

    The drive, decoded: eight completions out of nine

    Once it started, Montana was almost perfect. He completed eight of nine passes on the drive, moving the ball in chunks rather than gambling on one big throw.

    The method matters, because it’s the opposite of panic. A team 92 yards out with the clock running feels like it should heave the ball deep. Montana did the reverse: short and intermediate passes, most of them to Jerry Rice and running back Roger Craig, taking the yards the Bengals gave him and getting out of bounds or back to the line fast to save the clock.

    Rice was the engine. He finished the game with 11 catches for 215 yards, a Super Bowl receiving record at the time, and his 27-yard catch on the drive was the single biggest gain, pushing San Francisco into scoring range. He was named the game’s Most Valuable Player, the award we unpack on our Super Bowl MVP post.

    Team stats: Bengals and 49ers

    StatBengals49ers
    First downs1323
    Rushing28-106-028-111-0
    Passing11-25-144-0-123-36-357-2-0
    Sacked5-213-16
    Net pass yds123341
    Total yds229452
    Fumbles1-04-2
    Turnovers12
    Penalties7-654-32
    Time of poss.32:4327:17
    Super Bowl XXIII, 22 January 1989. Green is the better figure in each row; fewer sacks, turnovers, fumbles lost and penalties count as better. Rushing shown as attempts-yards-TDs, passing as completions-attempts-yards-TDs-interceptions, sacked as times-yards lost, fumbles as total-lost, penalties as count-yards. The 49ers took seven rows, the Bengals three, and still lost 20-16. Source: Pro Football Reference.

    The one incompletion was deliberate. With the crowd so loud his teammates couldn’t hear the signals, Montana threw a ball away out of bounds to reset and calm the huddle. Even the mistake was on purpose.

    Decoded Takeaway: the drive was built on control, not heroics, which is exactly why coaches still teach it.

    The winning play: why it went to Taylor, not Rice

    Here’s the part that rewards a closer look. The winning touchdown did not go to Jerry Rice, the best receiver on the field and the man Cincinnati was most afraid of. It went to John Taylor, who hadn’t caught a single pass all game.

    That was the design, not an accident. The call was a play named “X up,” which head coach Bill Walsh had installed three days before the game. The idea was simple and ruthless: flood the left side of the field to pull the defence that way, then send one receiver back across to the open middle.

    Taylor, lined up on the left in a tight formation, was that one receiver. As Rice went in motion to the left, a Bengals safety followed him across, and Taylor released clean and cut back on a skinny post into the space everyone else had vacated. Montana hit him for the 10-yard score with 34 seconds left.

    On the drive, Montana’s throws had gone almost entirely to Rice and Craig, three completions each, so the Bengals were braced for both. The winning play used that fear against them. The star receiver does not have to touch the ball to win you the game.

    He just has to occupy the people who would otherwise stop the player who does. If you want the fuller picture of how an offence is built to do this, our offence explainer is the place to go, and the thinking behind calls like this one sits on our coaches and play-calling page.

    Takeaway: the decisive play worked because the man who scored was the man the defence had forgotten about.

    Was it really the switch?

    Mostly, yes, but the drive needed one break to survive. The 27-yard catch to Jerry Rice that set up the winning score came after the Bengals cornerback covering him, Lewis Billups, missed the tackle. Make that tackle short of the marker, and San Francisco is further out with less time, and the whole shape of the finish changes.

    That’s the fair version of events. The drive was extraordinary and it still needed a Bengals defender to come up a yard short at the wrong moment. Both things are true, and the second doesn’t shrink the first.

    Takeaway: it was the drive that won it, helped by a missed tackle that kept it alive.

    Why the fans still talk about it

    The debate around this one isn’t about a controversial call, which sets it apart from some other famous moments. The three live arguments are these.

    • Was this the single greatest clutch quarterbacking performance in Super Bowl history?
    • Did it, more than any one throw, cement Montana as the best there has been?
    • And how much credit belongs to head coach Bill Walsh, whose system made a drive like this repeatable rather than a one-off?

    There’s no settled answer, and that’s the point of starting here. Before the plays built on luck, improvisation or a coach’s nerve, this is the one built on sheer control.

    If you want the games this series doesn’t cover, the plays so contentious the NFL rewrote its rulebook, I’ve written a separate trilogy on those: the Immaculate Reception, the Holy Roller and the Tuck Rule Game.

    Next in the series: The play that rewrote a legacy. John Elway, 37 years old, leaving his feet on a third-down scramble and getting spun like a helicopter.

  • The Raiders got found out, and their coach said it first

    The Raiders got found out, and their coach said it first

    Drake Maye finished with a passer rating of 150.9. The scale stops at 158.3. That is the whole game, and it is why the argument I have watched Raiders fans have since Sunday night, offence or defence, is not really an argument once you open the box score.

    Las Vegas lost 45-17 at New England (NFL.com game book). It was grim, it was painful to watch, and it was the first time this season they have looked like the team most people expected before the year started.

    I am not going to pretend otherwise. But there is a difference between a bad night and a bad team, and the numbers are quite specific about which bits were which. Only a week earlier the Raiders went toe to toe with Kansas City and lost by three having outgained them.

    How the game went

    New England led inside four minutes and were never caught.

    QuarterRaidersPatriots
    Q1714
    Q207
    Q3314
    Q4710
    Final1745

    Brock Bowers caught a 13-yard touchdown to level it at 7-7 midway through the first quarter.

    That was as good as it got. The Patriots scored the next three touchdowns to lead 28-7 early in the third, having gone in 21-7 up at half-time, and after the break the Raiders never got within 18 points.

    The argument, settled

    Here is the night side by side.

    RaidersPatriots
    Total yards306536
    Rushing yards38165
    Third down5 of 136 of 12
    Fourth down0 of 22 of 2
    Red zone touchdowns2 of 34 of 5
    Passer ratingCousins 106.7Maye 150.9
    Time of possession25:3334:27

    Kirk Cousins went 19 of 28 for 243 yards and a touchdown without throwing an interception. That is a passer rating of 106.7, which is a good afternoon by any measure. The offence also scored touchdowns on two of its three trips inside the New England 20. Neither of those is the profile of a unit that loses by 28.

    Passer rating is the single number that tries to sum up how well a quarterback threw, and it tops out at 158.3 rather than 100, which trips everyone up the first time.

    Anything above 100 is a strong day. Maye’s 150.9 is the sort of number a quarterback gets when almost nothing goes wrong: 26 of 34, 374 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions. I have the full breakdown of what that number rewards and what it quietly ignores in QB stats, decoded.

    Five hundred and thirty-six yards. Four touchdowns from five red-zone trips. Two conversions from two attempts on fourth down. The Raiders managed one sack all night, and the club’s own write-up noted that Maxx Crosby and Kwity Paye finished with two tackles between them (Paul Gutierrez, Raiders.com).

    The number underneath that is the one that should worry Raiders fans most, because it is the exact thing this team was built on. Maye was pressured on 26.3% of his dropbacks, a season low (The Athletic, subscription). Back in September, the story of this defence was that nobody in the league disrupted quarterbacks more often.

    On Sunday the best quarterback they have faced had more time than any of them. Crosby explained how New England managed it: “They chipped and chipped a lot on long passes, and got the ball out quick.”

    Nor was the run defence a surprise. It was the fourth game in a row the Raiders have given up more than 120 yards on the ground, and New England ran for 165 at 5.3 a carry.

    That is not a bad night. That is a pattern that the first four weeks’ turnovers were covering up. Defence stats, decoded covers which of those numbers matter most.

    The one thing the offence did lose, and why

    There is a real offensive failure in here, the coach has already named it, and it is more interesting than “they played badly”.

    The Raiders ran for 38 yards from 18 carries. That is 2.1 yards per attempt. Ashton Jeanty, who went into the game carrying ankle and foot problems and played anyway, finished with 10 for 27 (Sam Warren, The Athletic, subscription).

    Kubiak did not hide behind it. “I abandoned the run game too early and didn’t give it a chance to get going,” he said.

    Here is why that matters more than it sounds, and it is the best thing I learned all week. Giving up on the run does not just cost you rushing yards. It costs you the threat of the run, and that threat is what makes play-action work. Play-action is the fake handoff: the quarterback pretends to give the ball to the running back, the defence hesitates for half a second, and receivers come open behind them. It only works if the defence genuinely fears the run.

    Against New England, just 9.7% of Cousins’ dropbacks involved a play-fake. In each of the first four games that figure never fell below 26.5% (The Athletic, citing TruMedia). The single most reliable tool in this offence all season was used roughly a third as often, because the thing it depends on had been put away.

    The rest follows. Cousins was sacked three times, a season high, and pressured on 38.7% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate he has faced this year. Drives died, possession finished 25:33 against 34:27, and a defence that was already losing badly got no rest at all.

    So both units, but not equally, and not independently. The defence lost this game. The decision to stop running is why the offence could not help it.

    That is worth holding next to last week. Against Kansas City the Raiders kept the ball for 35:42 and lost by three. This week they kept it for 25:33 and lost by 28. Two opposite failures, a week apart, which is a reminder that no single number tells you who won. Team stats, decoded goes through which ones actually predict results.

    Fernando Mendoza’s first NFL snaps

    With 6:06 left and 28 points down in the rain, Klint Kubiak sent on the first overall pick in this year’s draft. Mendoza went 6 of 8 for 48 yards across ten snaps and moved the offence from his own 35 to the New England 14 before a scramble on fourth-and-four ended it.

    He was blunt about that last play: “That is totally my fault,” he said, adding that he “let the offense down on that play.” He also said he was “really proud of how the offense rallied, even late in the game”, and that “if, in the future, I am called upon, I have at least a little experience. Rather than none.”

    Kubiak kept it plain. “Just wanted to get him some exposure,” he said. “All reps are valuable. Very important for him.” He was clear it does not make Mendoza the starter.

    Nothing about ten snaps against a defence protecting a 28-point lead tells you what a quarterback will become. But a 22-year-old taking responsibility for his own mistake in his first professional outing tells you something about the person, and I liked it.

    Why I am not worried about coach Kubiak

    This is the bit where I put my cards down. I think Kubiak is doing a good job and I think he deserves considerably more than five games before anyone decides otherwise.

    Start with how he handled Sunday. “Very disappointing performance from everybody: players and coaches,” he said. “We have to move forward from it very quickly. We have everything ahead of us as a team. We’re not happy about what happened today, and we have to go do something about it.” Then he named his own mistakes without being cornered into it: abandoning the run, and a reverse to Tre Tucker that fooled nobody and killed a promising second-quarter drive.

    I have watched enough sport to know how rare that is. The ordinary version of this press conference blames execution, or the officials, or nothing at all. A coach who tells you which of his own calls went wrong, two days after his team were beaten by 28, is a coach who knows what he is looking at.

    He inherited a team that held the first overall pick in this year’s draft, which the Raiders spent on Fernando Mendoza (Yahoo Sports). Five weeks later they are 3-2. He has got that far with a run game that produced 38 yards on Sunday and a receiving group where the drop-off after Bowers is a cliff. Bowers, for the record, had another eight catches for 110 yards in a game where nothing else worked.

    A beating like this is also information. You cannot fix what you have not yet been shown, and Sunday showed them a great deal at once: the pass defence against a quarterback in form, the run game, the missed tackles, what happens when the margins stop falling their way. Better to learn it in October at 3-2 than in December with something riding on it.

    Where the Raiders sit now

    3-2, which given where this franchise was twelve months ago is a perfectly respectable place to be in the second week of October. Kansas City remain unbeaten and top of the AFC West, Denver are level with the Raiders, and the Chargers are still looking for their first win. The NFL play-offs and seeding explains what a record like that is actually worth once January arrives.

    AFC West standings

    2026 season, as of 13 October (after Week 5). MP = matches played, PD = points difference, PCT = win percentage, form runs oldest to newest left to right. Kansas City took their bye in Week 5, so they have played one game fewer. Denver are placed above Las Vegas on divisional tiebreakers. Sources: NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
    R Team MP W L PD PCT Form
    1 Kansas City Chiefs 4 4 0 +41 1.000 WWWW
    2 Denver Broncos 5 3 2 -14 0.600 LWWLW
    3 Las Vegas Raiders 5 3 2 +3 0.600 WWWLL
    4 Los Angeles Chargers 5 0 5 -45 0.000 LLLLL

    The rest of the league week 5

    Week 5 had plenty beyond Foxborough, and I have written it all up in the full Week 5 roundup across the league.

    What a beating is for: learnings

    If you are new to following a team properly, this is the week that teaches you the most. A close win tells you very little, because everything looked like it worked. A 28-point beating hands you a list.

    The Raiders now have theirs, and it is short and specific: run the ball and keep running it, stop giving up 120 yards on the ground every week, find somebody who can catch it other than Brock Bowers. None of that was invisible before Sunday. It is just that nobody could ignore it afterwards.

    They will find out quickly whether the list gets worked through. Sunday was the first of a seven-game run in which six of the opponents reached the play-offs last season. NFL Week 6 see’s us up against the Bills.

    Maxx Crosby, who has seen a few of these, put it about right: “You can feel like the best team in the world one week and the next week it could be real tough.”