“Why are the Broncos so low? I can’t believe I just asked that.” — ForgotMyRemembrall, on r/NFLv2
As I promised at the end of my last post, Which NFL division is best, I’ve put together my own picks for who wins all eight divisions this season, with the reasoning behind each one.
This is a first for me, so I’d genuinely love to know what you make of the method, but more importantly the picks. I’m a new fan, I support the Raiders (I know, I know), and I’m learning this as I go.
So rather than pretend I’m a super fan and statistical genius, I took three sources I’ve come to trust, worked out where they agree and where they fall out, and then made my own calls.
When the experts fumble
As I started out looking into how best to approach this I discovered that last season the experts had a shocker.
ESPN’s preseason Super Bowl favourite, the Eagles, never even reached the Super Bowl. The Football Power Index’s No. 1 ranked team, the Ravens, missed the playoffs entirely. And of the eight teams the market and the models made preseason favourites to win their division, exactly one actually did it.
They got ONE out of eight. So when a first-timer tells you she fancies a couple of underdogs, remember the professionals went 1-for-8 last year. My gut currently is not any worse than their data machines and insight – just yet.
The method behind my NFL Division picks
I reviewed three different approaches, before I made my choices (guesses).
ESPN’s FPI is a model. It runs the season thousands of times and gives each team a percentage chance of winning its division, so it’s cold, mathematical, and honest about uncertainty.
FanDuel is the money. Their win totals show where the betting market is leaning, which is a different kind of wisdom, the crowd voting with its wallet. And Bleacher Report is a human analyst going game by game, weighing the stuff a model can’t, like a rookie quarterback or a coaching change.
Where all three agreed, I mostly followed. Where they split, or where ESPN’s own numbers showed a live second-place team, I trusted my read. Here’s the full board, with my pick in the last column.
| Division | ESPN FPI | FanDuel | Bleacher Report | My pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC East | Bills (67.6%) | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| AFC North | Ravens (54.2%) | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| NFC West | Rams (46.0%) | Rams | Rams | Seahawks |
| NFC East | Eagles (44.5%) | Eagles | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| NFC South | Buccaneers (41.2%) | Buccaneers | Saints | Buccaneers |
| AFC South | Texans (39.7%) | Texans | Texans | Jaguars |
| NFC North | Lions (38.2%) | Lions | Lions | Packers |
| AFC West | Chiefs (38.2%) | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
FPI figures are each favourite’s chance to win the division. FanDuel odds reflect the market as of May 2026 and potentially may have already moved.
The ones I didn’t argue with the experts
Two divisions weren’t worth being clever about. The Bills (AFC East) and the Ravens (AFC North) are the pick of all three sources, and comfortably so, with ESPN giving them 67.6% and 54.2%. When the model, the market and the analyst all agree by that margin, being contrarian is just showing off.
I also sided with the majority on two more. In the AFC West I’ve got the Broncos, which is interesting because this is the one place I’ve gone against ESPN, not with it. FPI still has the Chiefs top of the division, but that model is leaning on Kansas City’s name after they collapsed to 6-11 last year. FanDuel and Bleacher Report both back Denver, the reigning division champions, and so do I. And in the NFC South I’ve kept the Buccaneers, siding with ESPN and FanDuel over B/R’s call of a Saints upset.
The ones where I broke from the pack
This is the fun part, and it’s where I’d most like your verdict.
NFC West: I’m taking the Seahawks over the Rams. Every source has the Rams, but Seattle are the reigning Super Bowl champions, and ESPN’s own model still gives them a 27.8% shot at the division. Backing the defending champs to win their own division is hardly a wild swing. It’s my heart pick, but the numbers don’t laugh at me for it.
AFC South: I’m taking the Jaguars over the Texans. This is the one I’m most confident is defensible. Jacksonville won this division at 13-4 last year, and FPI has them at 34.9% against Houston’s 39.7%. That’s almost a coin flip. Reigning champions who the model rates as a near-equal are worth backing.
NFC North: I’m taking the Packers over the Lions. Detroit are the favourites, but only just, and FPI has Green Bay right behind them at 32.8%. With a healthy roster I think the value is on the Packers, and the model doesn’t think I’m mad.
NFC East: I’m taking the Cowboys over the Eagles. Here I’m not even alone. Bleacher Report picks Dallas outright, on the back of their rebuilt defence, and I agree the swing in that division is on whether that overhaul lands. ESPN and FanDuel still have Philadelphia, so this is a genuine split, and I’ve come down on the Dallas side of it.
The thread running through those four: I only strayed where a respected source was already there with me, or where ESPN’s own index showed the runner-up within touching distance. I’m not claiming to know more than the model. I’m choosing which of its close calls to believe.
And then there are my Raiders
I support the Raiders, so let’s be honest about where they sit. Last season they went 3-14, finished bottom of the AFC West, and tied for the worst record in the entire league, which at least handed them the No. 1 pick. All three sources have them rooted to the foot of the division again this year.
So I’m not picking them to win anything. I’m just here for the climb. There’s a new coach in. Klint Kubiak, a rookie quarterback waiting in the wings – Fernando Mendoza, and a genuine rebuild underway. This year, the only way is up. But feel free to ask me come January.
Now it’s over to you. Tell me where I’ve got it wrong, tell me which underdog you’re backing, and come back at the end of the season so we can see how badly the new fan did against the professionals. I suspect I’ll have earned a bit of stick either way.
Sources and methodology
Here’s exactly where each number comes from and how each source builds it, so you can dig into the data yourself. It’s worth knowing these three aren’t measuring the same thing: one is a model, one is a betting market, and one is a person.
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) — a prediction model. FPI rates every team, then simulates the full season many thousands of times. The percentage I’ve used for each division is the share of those simulated seasons in which that team finishes top of its division, so it’s a probability, not a verdict. Forward-looking and cold-blooded about uncertainty. The 2026 division figures were shared publicly on r/NFLv2; for how FPI itself is built, ESPN publishes its own explainer.
Here’s the full board I worked from, every team’s FPI chance of winning its division:
| Division | Team (FPI % to win division) |
|---|---|
| AFC East | Bills 67.6, Patriots 30.6, Jets 1.2, Dolphins 0.6 |
| AFC North | Ravens 54.2, Bengals 32.5, Steelers 12.2, Browns 1.1 |
| AFC South | Texans 39.7, Jaguars 34.9, Colts 19.9, Titans 5.6 |
| AFC West | Chiefs 38.2, Chargers 35.9, Broncos 24.4, Raiders 1.5 |
| NFC East | Eagles 44.5, Cowboys 31.7, Commanders 12.2, Giants 11.6 |
| NFC North | Lions 38.2, Packers 32.8, Bears 19.4, Vikings 9.6 |
| NFC South | Buccaneers 41.2, Falcons 27.4, Saints 19.3, Panthers 12.2 |
| NFC West | Rams 46.0, Seahawks 27.8, 49ers 26.1, Cardinals 0.1 |
FanDuel Sportsbook — the betting market. FanDuel sets a regular-season win total for each team, and bettors take the over or the under; the attached price (for example, a Bills over at -130) tells you which way the money is leaning and how strongly. Where a book quotes them, division-winner odds price each team’s implied chance directly. So this column is the crowd voting with its wallet, not an editorial opinion. The numbers I used are from FanDuel’s schedule-and-win-totals research, reflecting the market as of May 2026, and odds move. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bleacher Report — a human analyst. In his predicted 2026 standings, Moe Moton projects a win-loss record for all 32 teams, weighing offseason moves, training-camp news, injuries, coaching changes and the strength of each schedule, then orders every division and names his winners. This is judgement, not maths: the stuff a model struggles to price, like a rookie quarterback or a new defensive coordinator, is exactly what a person can weigh.
Last season’s actual results come from Pro Football Reference, which is the source for every “here’s how the experts did in 2025” claim above.
The numbers behind my NFL division picks
For anyone who wants to check the “the professionals went 1-for-8” line, here’s the 2025 preseason favourite against who actually won each division.
| Division | 2025 preseason favourite | Actual winner |
|---|---|---|
| AFC East | Bills | Patriots |
| AFC North | Ravens | Steelers |
| AFC South | Texans | Jaguars |
| AFC West | Chiefs | Broncos |
| NFC East | Eagles | Eagles |
| NFC North | Lions | Bears |
| NFC South | Buccaneers | Panthers |
| NFC West | Rams / 49ers | Seahawks |
Only the Eagles held serve. Everything else went to a team that wasn’t the favourite, which is the whole reason a first-timer felt brave enough to file her own picks.